VIENNA, Austria / RankWire.AI / – Key members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies agreed on Sunday, November 1, to keep oil production targets steady in December. The decision comes as concerns grow that the U.S. could resume strikes against Iran after Tuesday’s midterm elections. Seven core members of OPEC+ held a virtual meeting as oil prices remained above $100 a barrel. The group’s crude output is still below prewar levels, with key shipping routes disrupted.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman agreed to maintain their September 2026 required production for December. Their combined target stands at about 31 million barrels per day, unchanged since September. Saudi Arabia’s quota is 10.478 million barrels per day, and Russia’s is 9.949 million. However, most of the seven are still pumping well below their targets because of the war with Iran, which began on February 28.
The Strait of Hormuz, which carried about a fifth of the world’s crude and liquefied natural gas before the conflict, has been effectively shut since the fighting started. In October, at least 35 attacks were recorded on commercial vessels in and around the strait, the highest monthly level of the war. Continued threats have pushed freight and insurance costs sharply higher, while global onshore oil inventories are near their lowest levels in at least a decade.
Brent posts fourth monthly gain
Brent crude futures for December settled at $117.64 a barrel on Friday, October 30, up 2.4% as the contract expired. The more active January contract closed at $113.43, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 2.08% to $104.12. Brent recorded its fourth straight monthly gain. Prices had already climbed above $110 a barrel in late October as supply worries deepened across the Gulf region. The gains reflected tight physical supply.
Traders are bracing for a possible escalation after the midterms. President Donald Trump has said the war will be wrapped up soon, but no decision has been made on a new military campaign. Israeli media have reported preparations for another round of strikes. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have also increased, adding to risks for regional energy infrastructure. Higher crude prices have also fed through to fuel costs, including record diesel prices in the U.S.
Tougher call ahead for 2027
All 21 members of the wider OPEC+ group are due to meet on November 29, when they are expected to set production quotas for 2027. A review of members’ capacity, which will shape 2027 baselines, is expected to finish by mid-November. The seven core members completed the unwinding of a 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary cut in September. About 2 million barrels per day of cuts agreed in 2022 remain in place through the end of 2026.
Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, said Sunday’s decision was the easy one. Leon said OPEC+ faces an extremely difficult call for 2027. Forecasters, including the International Energy Agency, have warned that the market could face excess supply next year if Gulf flows return to normal. For now, the group is holding steady while shipping disruptions, low inventories and the risk of renewed conflict keep prices elevated.